How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bayer Leverkusen, at 75.9%. The other outcomes represent 24.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 75.9% · Draw: 15.7% · Away win: 8.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Bayer Leverkusen 2201; Marseille 2003. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA Europa League · Thursday, Nov 5 2026
· 20:00
Bayer Leverkusen
Elo 2201
vs
Marseille
Elo 2003
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Elo Advantage
+198
Elo rating comparison
Bayer Leverkusen2201
Marseille2003
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Bayer Leverkusen
—Draws
—Marseille
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
76% conf.
Home
76%
Draw
16%
Away
8%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
89% conf.
Yes
11%
No
89%
Home Clean Sheet
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Double Chance 1X
97% conf.
Yes
97%
No
3%
Double Chance X2
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
Half-Time Result
56% conf.
Home
56%
Draw
30%
Away
13%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
78% conf.
Yes
78%
No
22%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
89% conf.
Yes
89%
No
11%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
Yes
48%
No
52%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.