How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Atlético Choloma, at 41.9%. The other outcomes represent 58.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 41.9% · Draw: 28.1% · Away win: 30%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Atlético Choloma 1465; Atletico Independiente 1482. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Liga Nacional · Thursday, Nov 5 2026
· 23:15
Atlético Choloma
Elo 1465
vs
Atletico Independiente
Elo 1482
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
-16
H2H (4)
0H
0D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Atlético Choloma1465
Atletico Independiente1482
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Atlético Choloma
0Draws
4Atletico Independiente
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
42% conf.
Home
42%
Draw
28%
Away
30%
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
70% conf.
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Clean Sheet
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
Home
31%
Draw
45%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
66% conf.
Yes
66%
No
34%
HT Over 1.5
66% conf.
Yes
34%
No
66%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
Yes
75%
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
Yes
52%
No
48%
Over 3.5 Goals
69% conf.
Yes
31%
No
69%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.