How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Frei Paulistano, at 55.2%. The other outcomes represent 44.8% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 17.3% · Draw: 27.6% · Away win: 55.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Maruinense 1333; Frei Paulistano 1576. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Sergipano - 2 · Thursday, Oct 29 2026
· 18:00
Maruinense
Elo 1333
2
-
1
Frei Paulistano
Elo 1576
FT
Elo rating comparison
Maruinense1333
Frei Paulistano1576
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Maruinense
—Draws
—Frei Paulistano
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
55% conf.
WRONG
Home
17%
Draw
28%
Away
55%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
83%
No
17%
Half-Time Result
57% conf.
Home
17%
Draw
25%
Away
57%
HT Both Teams Score
89% conf.
Yes
11%
No
89%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
56% conf.
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.