How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Aragua FC, at 49.4%. The other outcomes represent 50.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 49.4% · Draw: 29.6% · Away win: 21%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Aragua FC 1587; Monagas II 1522. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Segunda División · Sunday, Oct 25 2026
· 19:30
Aragua FC
Elo 1587
3
-
2
Monagas II
Elo 1522
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
+66
H2H (8)
0H
4D
4A
Elo rating comparison
Aragua FC1587
Monagas II1522
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Aragua FC
4Draws
4Monagas II
8 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
49% conf.
CORRECT
Home
49%
@ 1.68
Draw
30%
@ 3.35
Away
21%
@ 4.40
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
52%
@ 1.70
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.13
No
25%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
46%
No
54%
Half-Time Result
46% conf.
CORRECT
Home
36%
@ 2.22
Draw
46%
@ 2.10
Away
18%
@ 4.90
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
WRONG
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.34
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
@ 1.25
No
27%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
23%
No
77%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.