How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Britannia, at 57.7%. The other outcomes represent 42.3% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 25.4% · Draw: 16.8% · Away win: 57.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Nacional 1763; Britannia 1941. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–3. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Division di Honor · Tuesday, Oct 27 2026
· 00:30
Nacional
Elo 1763
1
-
3
Britannia
Elo 1941
FT
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Elo Advantage
-178
Elo rating comparison
Nacional1763
Britannia1941
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Nacional
—Draws
—Britannia
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
58% conf.
CORRECT
Home
25%
Draw
17%
Away
58%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Home Clean Sheet
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
Home
24%
Draw
33%
Away
43%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
82%
No
18%
Over 2.5 Goals
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Over 3.5 Goals
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.