How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is RCA, at 39.1%. The other outcomes represent 60.9% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 36.4% · Draw: 24.5% · Away win: 39.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Nacional 1755; RCA 1759. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Division di Honor · Monday, Nov 2 2026
· 00:00
Nacional
Elo 1755
1
-
1
RCA
Elo 1759
FT
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
-4
H2H (28)
14H
2D
12A
Elo rating comparison
Nacional1755
RCA1759
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
14Nacional
2Draws
12RCA
28 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
36%
Draw
25%
Away
39%
Both Teams to Score
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Away Clean Sheet
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Double Chance X2
62% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
62%
No
38%
Half-Time Result
38% conf.
Home
30%
Draw
38%
Away
32%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
68% conf.
WRONG
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 3.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
49%
No
51%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.