How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Independiente Medellin, at 40.9%. The other outcomes represent 59.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 33.3% · Draw: 25.9% · Away win: 40.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Fortaleza FC 1551; Independiente Medellin 1679. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera A · Saturday, Nov 7 2026
· 01:00
Fortaleza FC
Elo 1551
vs
Independiente Medellin
Elo 1679
Home Form (5)
1W
0D
4L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
-128
H2H (4)
2H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Fortaleza FC1551
Independiente Medellin1679
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Fortaleza FC
0Draws
2Independiente Medellin
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
Home
33%
Draw
26%
Away
41%
Both Teams to Score
64% conf.
Yes
64%
No
36%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
60% conf.
Yes
60%
No
40%
Double Chance X2
67% conf.
Yes
67%
No
33%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
Home
28%
Draw
41%
Away
31%
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
69% conf.
Yes
69%
No
31%
HT Over 1.5
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Over 1.5 Goals
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
Yes
13%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.