How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Bars, at 68.0%. The other outcomes represent 32.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 68% · Draw: 19% · Away win: 13.1%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Bars 1729; Toktogul 1456. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Tuesday, Oct 27 2026
· 13:00
Bars
Elo 1729
3
-
0
Toktogul
Elo 1456
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Elo Advantage
+273
H2H (1)
1H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Bars1729
Toktogul1456
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
1Bars
0Draws
0Toktogul
1 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
68% conf.
CORRECT
Home
68%
Draw
19%
Away
13%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
91% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
9%
No
91%
Home Clean Sheet
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Double Chance 1X
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Double Chance X2
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
34%
No
66%
Half-Time Result
52% conf.
CORRECT
Home
52%
Draw
34%
Away
14%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
64%
No
36%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
41%
No
59%
Home Win to Nil
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.