How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Neftchi, at 48.0%. The other outcomes represent 52.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 48% · Draw: 26.8% · Away win: 25.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Neftchi 1495; Ilbirs 1429. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Wednesday, Oct 28 2026
· 13:00
Neftchi
Elo 1495
3
-
0
Ilbirs
Elo 1429
FT
HT 1-0
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Elo Advantage
+66
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Neftchi1495
Ilbirs1429
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Neftchi
0Draws
2Ilbirs
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
48%
Draw
27%
Away
25%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
WRONG
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
No
30%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
38%
Draw
40%
Away
23%
HT Both Teams Score
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
19%
No
81%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
60% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
40%
No
60%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
51%
No
49%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
83% conf.
WRONG
Yes
17%
No
83%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.