How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Alianza, at 41.3%. The other outcomes represent 58.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 41.3% · Draw: 23.3% · Away win: 35.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Alianza 1640; Águila 1689. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera Division · Sunday, Nov 8 2026
· 01:30
Alianza
Elo 1640
vs
Águila
Elo 1689
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Elo Advantage
-49
H2H (10)
7H
3D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Alianza1640
Águila1689
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
7Alianza
3Draws
0Águila
10 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
41% conf.
Home
41%
Draw
23%
Away
35%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
Home Clean Sheet
61% conf.
Yes
39%
No
61%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
61% conf.
Yes
61%
No
39%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
Home
28%
Draw
45%
Away
26%
HT Both Teams Score
80% conf.
Yes
20%
No
80%
HT Over 0.5
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
HT Over 1.5
62% conf.
Yes
38%
No
62%
Over 1.5 Goals
68% conf.
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.