How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Nacional, at 57.9%. The other outcomes represent 42.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 22.3% · Draw: 19.8% · Away win: 57.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: River Plate 1525; Nacional 1755. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Division di Honor · Tuesday, Nov 10 2026
· 00:30
River Plate
Elo 1525
vs
Nacional
Elo 1755
Home Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-230
H2H (9)
0H
0D
9A
Elo rating comparison
River Plate1525
Nacional1755
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0River Plate
0Draws
9Nacional
9 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
58% conf.
Home
22%
Draw
20%
Away
58%
Both Teams to Score
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Away Clean Sheet
61% conf.
Yes
39%
No
61%
Home Clean Sheet
86% conf.
Yes
14%
No
86%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
Half-Time Result
44% conf.
Home
21%
Draw
35%
Away
44%
HT Both Teams Score
76% conf.
Yes
24%
No
76%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
63% conf.
Yes
63%
No
37%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
Yes
48%
No
52%
Home Win to Nil
97% conf.
Yes
3%
No
97%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.