How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Union Magdalena, at 36.8%. The other outcomes represent 63.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 35.5% · Draw: 27.7% · Away win: 36.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Popayan 1366; Union Magdalena 1495. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #720 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Primera B · Thursday, Oct 29 2026
· 19:00
Popayan
Elo 1366
1
-
1
Union Magdalena
Elo 1495
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
1W
3D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-130
H2H (4)
0H
4D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Popayan1366
Union Magdalena1495
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Popayan
4Draws
0Union Magdalena
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
37% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
@ 2.83
Draw
28%
@ 3.09
Away
37%
@ 2.40
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
@ 1.84
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Home Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
@ 1.48
No
47%
Double Chance X2
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
74%
@ 1.35
No
26%
Half-Time Result
48% conf.
CORRECT
Home
20%
@ 3.55
Draw
48%
@ 1.97
Away
32%
@ 3.04
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.44
No
41%
HT Over 1.5
73% conf.
WRONG
Yes
27%
No
73%
Over 1.5 Goals
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
69%
@ 1.36
No
31%
Over 2.5 Goals
52% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
48%
No
52%
Over 3.5 Goals
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
7%
No
93%
Home Win to Nil
88% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
12%
No
88%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.