How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Moldova U21, at 45.0%. The other outcomes represent 55.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 45% · Draw: 20.9% · Away win: 34.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Moldova U21 1390; Kazakhstan U21 1309. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–2. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 14:00
Moldova U21
Elo 1390
3
-
2
Kazakhstan U21
Elo 1309
FT
HT 1-2
Home Form (5)
2W
1D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+82
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Moldova U211390
Kazakhstan U211309
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Moldova U21
2Draws
0Kazakhstan U21
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
45% conf.
CORRECT
Home
45%
Draw
21%
Away
34%
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
27%
No
73%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
No
47%
Half-Time Result
42% conf.
WRONG
Home
42%
Draw
31%
Away
26%
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
79%
No
21%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
84% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
84%
No
16%
Over 2.5 Goals
66% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 3.5 Goals
52% conf.
WRONG
Yes
48%
No
52%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.