How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Netherlands U21, at 80.4%. The other outcomes represent 19.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 80.4% · Draw: 12.4% · Away win: 7.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Netherlands U21 1737; Bosnia-Herzegovina U21 1404. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 4–0. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 16:45
Netherlands U21
Elo 1737
4
-
0
Bosnia-Herzegovina U21
Elo 1404
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
0W
2D
3L
Elo Advantage
+334
Elo rating comparison
Netherlands U211737
Bosnia-Herzegovina U211404
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Netherlands U21
—Draws
—Bosnia-Herzegovina U21
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
80% conf.
CORRECT
Home
80%
Draw
12%
Away
7%
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
93% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
7%
No
93%
Home Clean Sheet
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Double Chance 1X
97% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
97%
No
3%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
Half-Time Result
57% conf.
WRONG
Home
57%
Draw
33%
Away
10%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
WRONG
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
No
33%
Over 3.5 Goals
58% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
58%
No
42%
Home Win to Nil
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
No
50%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.