How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Poland U21, at 64.9%. The other outcomes represent 35.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 64.9% · Draw: 25.3% · Away win: 9.8%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Poland U21 1680; Sweden U21 1525. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Wednesday, Sep 30 2026
· 16:00
Poland U21
Elo 1680
vs
Sweden U21
Elo 1525
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
0L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+154
Elo rating comparison
Poland U211680
Sweden U211525
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Poland U21
—Draws
—Sweden U21
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
65% conf.
Home
65%
Draw
25%
Away
10%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
89% conf.
Yes
11%
No
89%
Home Clean Sheet
52% conf.
Yes
48%
No
52%
Double Chance 1X
97% conf.
Yes
97%
No
3%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
Yes
35%
No
65%
Half-Time Result
45% conf.
Home
45%
Draw
38%
Away
17%
HT Both Teams Score
85% conf.
Yes
15%
No
85%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
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Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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