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Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Italy U21, at 47.5%. The other outcomes represent 52.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 47.5% · Draw: 25.6% · Away win: 26.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Italy U21 1748; Poland U21 1680. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Monday, Oct 5 2026
· 16:15
Italy U21
Elo 1748
vs
Poland U21
Elo 1680
Home Form (5)
5W
0D
0L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
0L
Elo Advantage
+68
Elo rating comparison
Italy U211748
Poland U211680
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
—Italy U21
—Draws
—Poland U21
0 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
47% conf.
Home
47%
Draw
26%
Away
27%
Both Teams to Score
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Away Clean Sheet
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
Home Clean Sheet
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Double Chance 1X
65% conf.
Yes
65%
No
35%
Double Chance X2
51% conf.
Yes
49%
No
51%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
Home
43%
Draw
37%
Away
21%
HT Both Teams Score
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
HT Over 0.5
74% conf.
Yes
74%
No
26%
HT Over 1.5
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
Yes
81%
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
68% conf.
Yes
32%
No
68%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
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No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.