How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Portugal U21, at 75.4%. The other outcomes represent 24.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 75.4% · Draw: 17.1% · Away win: 7.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Portugal U21 1785; Gibraltar U21 1188. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Wednesday, Sep 30 2026
· 19:00
Portugal U21
Elo 1785
vs
Gibraltar U21
Elo 1188
Home Form (5)
3W
0D
2L
Away Form (5)
0W
0D
5L
Elo Advantage
+596
H2H (2)
2H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Portugal U211785
Gibraltar U211188
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
2Portugal U21
0Draws
0Gibraltar U21
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
75% conf.
Home
75%
Draw
17%
Away
7%
Both Teams to Score
60% conf.
Yes
40%
No
60%
Away Clean Sheet
91% conf.
Yes
9%
No
91%
Home Clean Sheet
58% conf.
Yes
42%
No
58%
Double Chance 1X
97% conf.
Yes
97%
No
3%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
Half-Time Result
69% conf.
Home
69%
Draw
22%
Away
9%
HT Both Teams Score
83% conf.
Yes
17%
No
83%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
Yes
68%
No
32%
Over 1.5 Goals
85% conf.
Yes
85%
No
15%
Over 2.5 Goals
72% conf.
Yes
72%
No
28%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
Yes
67%
No
33%
Home Win to Nil
59% conf.
Yes
41%
No
59%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.