How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is France U21, at 79.3%. The other outcomes represent 20.7% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 79.3% · Draw: 13.3% · Away win: 7.4%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: France U21 1664; Luxembourg U21 1287. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Saturday, Oct 3 2026
· 17:00
France U21
Elo 1664
vs
Luxembourg U21
Elo 1287
Home Form (5)
1W
2D
2L
Away Form (5)
1W
1D
3L
Elo Advantage
+377
H2H (4)
4H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
France U211664
Luxembourg U211287
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4France U21
0Draws
0Luxembourg U21
4 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
79% conf.
Home
79%
Draw
13%
Away
7%
Both Teams to Score
52% conf.
Yes
52%
No
48%
Away Clean Sheet
92% conf.
Yes
8%
No
92%
Home Clean Sheet
53% conf.
Yes
47%
No
53%
Double Chance 1X
97% conf.
Yes
97%
No
3%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
Yes
22%
No
78%
Half-Time Result
56% conf.
Home
56%
Draw
34%
Away
10%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
Yes
77%
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
Yes
58%
No
42%
Over 1.5 Goals
86% conf.
Yes
86%
No
14%
Over 2.5 Goals
66% conf.
Yes
66%
No
34%
Over 3.5 Goals
59% conf.
Yes
59%
No
41%
Home Win to Nil
50% conf.
Yes
50%
No
50%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.