How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is England U21, at 55.0%. The other outcomes represent 45.0% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 22.3% · Draw: 22.7% · Away win: 55%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Republic of Ireland U21 1590; England U21 1813. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 3–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Tuesday, Oct 6 2026
· 17:00
Republic of Ireland U21
Elo 1590
3
-
1
England U21
Elo 1813
FT
HT 2-1
Home Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-223
H2H (2)
0H
0D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Republic of Ireland U211590
England U211813
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Republic of Ireland U21
0Draws
2England U21
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
55% conf.
WRONG
Home
22%
Draw
23%
Away
55%
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Clean Sheet
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Double Chance 1X
56% conf.
WRONG
Yes
44%
No
56%
Double Chance X2
78% conf.
WRONG
Yes
78%
No
22%
Half-Time Result
41% conf.
WRONG
Home
21%
Draw
41%
Away
38%
HT Both Teams Score
79% conf.
WRONG
Yes
21%
No
79%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
57% conf.
WRONG
Yes
43%
No
57%
Over 1.5 Goals
78% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
78%
No
22%
Over 2.5 Goals
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Over 3.5 Goals
63% conf.
WRONG
Yes
37%
No
63%
Home Win to Nil
89% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
11%
No
89%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.