How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Switzerland U21, at 42.9%. The other outcomes represent 57.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 32.7% · Draw: 24.4% · Away win: 42.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Iceland U21 1509; Switzerland U21 1617. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 5–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #706 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification · Tuesday, Sep 29 2026
· 15:00
Iceland U21
Elo 1509
5
-
1
Switzerland U21
Elo 1617
FT
HT 2-0
Home Form (5)
0W
3D
2L
Away Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Elo Advantage
-108
H2H (2)
0H
2D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Iceland U211509
Switzerland U211617
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Iceland U21
2Draws
0Switzerland U21
2 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
33%
Draw
24%
Away
43%
Both Teams to Score
57% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
57%
No
43%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
53% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
53%
No
47%
Double Chance X2
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
64%
No
36%
Half-Time Result
39% conf.
WRONG
Home
25%
Draw
39%
Away
36%
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
64% conf.
WRONG
Yes
36%
No
64%
Over 1.5 Goals
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
No
24%
Over 2.5 Goals
56% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
56%
No
44%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
85% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
15%
No
85%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.