How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Brighton, at 43.5%. The other outcomes represent 56.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43.5% · Draw: 31.7% · Away win: 24.7%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Brighton 2140; Leeds 2124. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–1. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Saturday, Sep 5 2026
· 14:00
Brighton
Elo 2140
1
-
1
Leeds
Elo 2124
FT
HT 0-1
Home Form (5)
3W
1D
1L
Away Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Elo Advantage
+17
H2H (3)
0H
0D
3A
Elo rating comparison
Brighton2140
Leeds2124
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Brighton
0Draws
3Leeds
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
44%
@ 1.81
Draw
32%
@ 3.63
Away
25%
@ 4.30
Both Teams to Score
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
64% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
36%
No
64%
Double Chance 1X
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.21
No
25%
Double Chance X2
54% conf.
WRONG
Yes
46%
No
54%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
40%
@ 2.39
Draw
39%
@ 2.20
Away
21%
@ 4.53
HT Both Teams Score
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
23%
No
77%
HT Over 0.5
73% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
73%
@ 1.37
No
27%
HT Over 1.5
63% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
37%
No
63%
Over 1.5 Goals
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.26
No
25%
Over 2.5 Goals
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
53%
@ 1.85
No
47%
Over 3.5 Goals
71% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
29%
No
71%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.