How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Newcastle, at 39.9%. The other outcomes represent 60.1% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 39.9% · Draw: 25% · Away win: 35.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Newcastle 2059; Bournemouth 2118. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Saturday, Sep 5 2026
· 11:30
Newcastle
Elo 2059
2
-
2
Bournemouth
Elo 2118
FT
HT 1-2
Home Form (5)
2W
2D
1L
Away Form (5)
3W
2D
0L
Elo Advantage
-59
H2H (3)
0H
1D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Newcastle2059
Bournemouth2118
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Newcastle
1Draws
2Bournemouth
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
40%
@ 2.24
Draw
25%
@ 3.63
Away
35%
@ 2.93
Both Teams to Score
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
@ 1.50
No
46%
Away Clean Sheet
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Home Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Double Chance 1X
67% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
67%
@ 1.39
No
33%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.62
No
41%
Half-Time Result
40% conf.
WRONG
Home
35%
@ 2.73
Draw
40%
@ 2.34
Away
25%
@ 3.31
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
77% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
77%
@ 1.29
No
23%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
@ 1.17
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
@ 1.60
No
39%
Over 3.5 Goals
65% conf.
WRONG
Yes
35%
No
65%
Home Win to Nil
79% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
21%
No
79%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.