How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Arsenal, at 57.4%. The other outcomes represent 42.6% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 57.4% · Draw: 24.4% · Away win: 18.2%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Arsenal 2310; Chelsea 2108. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–1. The result matched the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Sunday, Sep 6 2026
· 15:30
Arsenal
Elo 2310
2
-
1
Chelsea
Elo 2108
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
4W
1D
0L
Away Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Elo Advantage
+202
H2H (5)
5H
0D
0A
Elo rating comparison
Arsenal2310
Chelsea2108
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
5Arsenal
0Draws
0Chelsea
5 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
57% conf.
CORRECT
Home
57%
@ 1.66
Draw
24%
@ 3.76
Away
18%
@ 5.18
Both Teams to Score
50% conf.
WRONG
Yes
50%
No
50%
Away Clean Sheet
86% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
14%
No
86%
Home Clean Sheet
69% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
31%
No
69%
Double Chance 1X
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
@ 1.16
No
20%
Double Chance X2
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
45%
No
55%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
WRONG
Home
43%
@ 2.18
Draw
40%
@ 2.24
Away
17%
@ 5.26
HT Both Teams Score
75% conf.
WRONG
Yes
25%
No
75%
HT Over 0.5
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
76%
@ 1.37
No
24%
HT Over 1.5
55% conf.
WRONG
Yes
45%
No
55%
Over 1.5 Goals
81% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
81%
@ 1.26
No
19%
Over 2.5 Goals
50% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
50%
@ 1.82
No
50%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.