How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Aston Villa, at 43.8%. The other outcomes represent 56.2% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 43.8% · Draw: 30.2% · Away win: 25.9%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Aston Villa 2125; Nottingham Forest 2069. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 1–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 14:00
Aston Villa
Elo 2125
1
-
2
Nottingham Forest
Elo 2069
FT
HT 0-0
Home Form (5)
0W
1D
4L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
+56
H2H (8)
4H
2D
2A
Elo rating comparison
Aston Villa2125
Nottingham Forest2069
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
4Aston Villa
2Draws
2Nottingham Forest
8 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
44% conf.
WRONG
Home
44%
@ 1.94
Draw
30%
@ 3.56
Away
26%
@ 3.77
Both Teams to Score
53% conf.
WRONG
Yes
47%
No
53%
Away Clean Sheet
76% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
24%
No
76%
Home Clean Sheet
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
30%
No
70%
Double Chance 1X
72% conf.
WRONG
Yes
72%
@ 1.25
No
28%
Double Chance X2
59% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
59%
@ 1.84
No
41%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
32%
@ 2.51
Draw
43%
@ 2.19
Away
25%
@ 4.18
HT Both Teams Score
82% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
18%
No
82%
HT Over 0.5
71% conf.
WRONG
Yes
71%
@ 1.37
No
29%
HT Over 1.5
68% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
32%
No
68%
Over 1.5 Goals
70% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
70%
@ 1.28
No
30%
Over 2.5 Goals
51% conf.
WRONG
Yes
49%
No
51%
Over 3.5 Goals
72% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
28%
No
72%
Home Win to Nil
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Recent results
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Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.