How to read these predictions
Each percentage is an estimated probability. Explore the data and models behind our analysis.
Learn more →Statistical match analysis
In the model estimate, the most likely outcome is Brentford, at 38.5%. The other outcomes represent 61.5% of the probability: being the favourite does not mean certainty.
Home win: 31.5% · Draw: 30.1% · Away win: 38.5%.
Elo strength available for this analysis: Bournemouth 2118; Brentford 2133. Elo summarises estimated team strength; it does not by itself explain the entire prediction.
90-minute result: 2–2. The result did not match the highest-probability 1X2 outcome. One result does not validate or invalidate a model. Evaluate calibration and performance across a sample of matches.
Automated analysis based on model probabilities, without individual editorial review of this match. 1X2 model #670 · Recorded: . Recorded before scheduled kickoff.
Probabilities do not guarantee profit. Displayed fair odds are not bookmaker offers.
Premier League · Saturday, Sep 12 2026
· 14:00
Bournemouth
Elo 2118
2
-
2
Brentford
Elo 2133
FT
HT 1-1
Home Form (5)
4W
0D
1L
Away Form (5)
2W
3D
0L
Elo Advantage
-14
H2H (3)
0H
2D
1A
Elo rating comparison
Bournemouth2118
Brentford2133
A measure of relative team strength before the match.
Head-to-head history
0Bournemouth
2Draws
1Brentford
3 historical meetings in the model
Predictions
14 marketsMatch Result
38% conf.
WRONG
Home
31%
@ 2.53
Draw
30%
@ 3.52
Away
38%
@ 2.60
Both Teams to Score
55% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
55%
@ 1.54
No
45%
Away Clean Sheet
74% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
26%
No
74%
Home Clean Sheet
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
25%
No
75%
Double Chance 1X
61% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
61%
@ 1.47
No
39%
Double Chance X2
65% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
65%
@ 1.50
No
35%
Half-Time Result
43% conf.
CORRECT
Home
29%
@ 3.02
Draw
43%
@ 2.24
Away
28%
@ 3.13
HT Both Teams Score
74% conf.
WRONG
Yes
26%
No
74%
HT Over 0.5
75% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
75%
@ 1.32
No
25%
HT Over 1.5
58% conf.
WRONG
Yes
42%
No
58%
Over 1.5 Goals
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
80%
@ 1.21
No
20%
Over 2.5 Goals
54% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
54%
@ 1.67
No
46%
Over 3.5 Goals
67% conf.
WRONG
Yes
33%
No
67%
Home Win to Nil
80% conf.
CORRECT
Yes
20%
No
80%
Recent results
Compare match results with the predictions published before kickoff.
Learn more →Verified performance
Explore accuracy statistics, calibration and the history of our models.
Learn more →Frequently asked questionsAnswers to common questions about our predictions.
How are probabilities calculated?
Models analyse historical data, recent form, Elo ratings and other statistics available before each match.
Are predictions guaranteed?
No. A probability is an estimate, not a guarantee. Football is unpredictable and any result can occur.
Is Ganhar.pt a bookmaker?
No. We are a football statistical analysis platform and do not accept bets. Use the information responsibly.